The Signal and the Noise

<p>Nate Silver, the American statistician who earned acclaim for the accuracy of his 2008 presidential election predictions, describes the 'attitudinal change' by which we can develop better foresight, both at the global level and in our own lives. Studying the different techniques used by hundreds of expert forecasters, he reveals why most predictions fail and uncovers unexpected connections and patterns in areas ranging from the economy and stock markets to the poker table.</p>